I hate to say it, but for most bridge players I know, disappointments stick in the mind at least as long as triumphs. It's particularly disappointing to miss a pretty play that would have paid off. The pangs almost always hit me immediately after a hand -- the one area I consider myself truly world-class is the post-mortem :-). But in this case, what with the hurry of that inexorable 15-minute pairs clock, the tension of being close in a national final, and the need to keep moving on to the next hand, there wasn't much time for analysis, and the painful feelings didn't strike until five days later. I was back home coming out of the shower when I remembered this hand from the second final session of the NAPs, and realized that not only was it makable, but I
should have made it:
Dummy: K975 842 84 QJ94
Declarer: AQ2 AJ973 K5 AT5
With RHO dealer, neither vul., the auction went P-1H-P-2H-X-4H-AP, and the S3 was led, which could systemically be three small or honor-third. Plan the play. Extensive analysis in the comments.
4 comments:
I am comparing 2 options:
1. Win in hand and play Ha and a heart. This should work if H are 3-2 and both minor suit finesses are working. Moreover, LHO may misdefend if RHO has singleton honor in H and no ace of diamonds.
2. Win SK, float c9 to mark yourself with ct, then cq. I might be able to survive some layouts when LHO has DA by keeping RHO off lead. Also I might pick up HT onside when ck is off, if LHO fails to duck.
2A there is a version of line 2 whereby I win sa, q then ck. I think it's inferior because when LHO has stiff spade and 3 hearts, i will lose an extra trump trick.
Line 2 looks superior against weak defenders. Not sure which line is best in strong field.
I’ll reveal the story of this hand in a couple more stages. First, what happened at the table: I won the lead in hand and played A and a trump. RHO, who started with JTx Kx QJTxx Kxx, won and led diamonds, and I was quickly down one. At the time, I wasn’t sure it could be made even double-dummy, but it can, via the avoidance line that Alex sketches (the interested reader can think about the details, I'll post more next time.) Is the required line right single-dummy? More thoughts coming next time -- I'm still not actually sure. Alex is right that the best single-dummy play is far from clear, so I don’t feel quite so bad about this hand now.
Franco Baseggio pointed out via email that an even more interesting double-dummy problem arises when RHO has T43 Q AQxxx Kxxx. The interested reader can try to solve this; I’ll post Franco’s line in a couple of days. This flat-looking little hand leads to some very interesting play!
I was looking at the problem that Franco put forward. I'm a little unsure how LHO can lead the S3 when RHO has T43 of spades, but if you change the lead to S6 I think I see how to make it. But I also think it is not a double dummy make with that layout against all leads. Maybe Franco can check me on this.
Right, Dougin, my fault about the spots -- I should have said RHO has T64 so lefty has J83.
Here is Franco's line:
"Insert the S7, forcing an honor, win SA (not Q!). HA, dropping an honor, HJ. If LHO plays another spade from an honor (if an honor, you unblock SQ under SK), or a club, that creates an extra entry to dummy you can use to play a diamond, after which it's not hard so long as you play for the layout above (e.g. S9, DA, SK, CQ, CT, trumps). If not, just force out trumps at every opportunity, eventually taking 4 spades, 3 hearts, 3 clubs."
Very nice -- relies on DA onside but survives the 4-1 trumps with stiff honor. Note his fancy stepping with the spots is needed to counter the defense of spades at every opportunity, after which you have problems taking your hooks and not suffering a ruff.
The line I was going to propose caters to the actual layout: win trick 1 in dummy, run CQ dropping T, (or run C9), run CJ. If not covered play a heart to the 9 and T – eventually you will cash your blacks (spades first) and throw lefty in with 3rd trump. If 2nd club is covered you play a 3rd club – this will work fine if clubs 3-3 or lefty has DA, but you are dead if lefty has such as Jxx QTx Qxxxx xx – he crosses for a 4th round of clubs and you lose two more trump tricks – as Alex said, this pays off only to this layout and the strong defense of covering the 2nd club.
What is the verdict single-dummy? It depends how much of a mad pre-balancer rho is, but I think based on the opening lead, the odds are the DA is off. LHO has led from xxx, Txx or Jxx; QJxx(x) of diamonds would always be preferred, Qxxx(x) would very likely be preferred, and Jxxx(x) might be preferred. That leaves pretty much the only hand for RHO to have with the DA as the one Franco describes (his passed hand is running out of space for honors) and even then a diamond could have been led, so I’m plugging for the avoidance line.
Post a Comment