x Axxxxx Kxx K92
Ax Kx AQJx AT543
after LHO overcalled 1S and righty bid 4S, and Franco did very well to pull my double to 5C. Unfortunately, I didn't play this hand well. My problems started when lefty led a diamond which I wrongly assumed was shortness, so that he (if anyone) was likely to have trump length. I then debated whether I was willing to safety the trumps (CA, club to 9) and decided it wasn't worth the extra risks and I should just stick to basics and play for clubs 3-2 after which it's a claim. BUT having decided that, I should make sure to also make against stiff Q or J of trumps. (For instance, CK, SA, spade ruff*.) However, with the idea of lefty having the trumps being an idee fixe, and thinking I was just banging down AK trumps anyway, I started trumps with CA and another, lefty having stiff J as it happened. Now, since I couldn't ruff a spade, I was forced to rely on hearts 3-2, and fortunately they were, but unfortunately I'm the kind of person who is haunted by this kind of thing anyway. For the record, my play blows the slam about 4% of the time, but more than that it's just ugly. Naturally I'm hoping this confession will be good for the soul.
*Best start is actually CK, C2...rho might split from QJxx. If no honor appears, you have a close decision whether to go up A or hook the T. Probably the T, but depends how you read the opening lead.
To cleanse the mental palate, here's a bread-and-butter, but non-routine, hand from the R16 that I played right:
Q9853 QJxx x Kxx
AJT74 --- AKxx Axxx
I was in 6S at white/red, after P-P-1S-(2S)-4S-(5H)-6S-AP. They led HK. Try it if you like. More next time. Update: see lengthy analysis on this hand in the comments.
5 comments:
Hi Jon,
It's impressive that you figured this problem out on a spot. Last night I spent 40 minutes deciding between 4 rounds of diamonds before touching trump, spade finesse, and spades from the top, but did not get any overall sense of what's best.
In real life, I'd ruff and play SA, because it's simple. The slam makes any time spades are 2-1 or (crazy?) RHO has 3=4=2=4.
Main concern with this line is RHO being 3=4=5=1 in which case it's better to ruff HK, da, dk, diamond ruff, heart ruff, diamond discovering bad break in time to handle it. However, then we have to worry about RHO having 1=4=3=5 with stiff sk.
Looking forward to the answer to this puzzle.
Cheers,
Alex
Right, I was very tempted to just bang down the SA, but with all that red bidding the risk of 3-0 trumps was scary. Maybe I missed something, but I think you're dead after cashing SA when RHO is 3=4=2=4: at some point he overruffs a diamond and plays his last trump. Also dead against 0=5=3=5/3=4=5=1.
So in fact I played DAK, diamond ruff with the 8; this was overruffed and righty played a trump which broke so I claimed, but could have claimed on a high-enough crossruff even if trumps were 3-0.
When does my line fail? Certainly if RHO is 1=4=2=6 with stiff SK, a relatively unlikely case. Anytime else? Well, now we come to the question of how you continue if everyone follows to 3 rounds of diamonds. (At the table, I knew I would get a chance to reconsider if it came to this, so at the very least my early play catered to the 3=4=2=4 with rho while costing very little.) I think best is to continue with H ruff, D ruff...as Alex says you are down when RHO has 1=4=3=5 with stiff K (note that lefty might have led a club stiff), but are well-placed otherwise. The cutest variation is when lefty shows out on the 4th diamond revealing 0=5=3=5 for sure, you can make just by establishing a heart trick and picking up the trumps. Easy! And if righty shows on on 4th diamond but doesn't overruff, now you can safely cash SA.
Finally, note that if *lefty* has 3 trumps (and therefore a minor-suit void), you're just dead.
It was very hard to keep track of all of these variations at the table, so it was important that I knew that starting with 3 rounds of diamonds had a definite possible gain and a very unlikely cost compared to cashing a trump. Perhaps "non-routine" was an underbid on this hand and I could have safely said "tricky." By "bread-and-butter" I meant that there are no squeezes or endplays; it's "just" a crossruff hand.
BTW, at the other table my teammate refrained from the Michaels bid and almost won a big swing. Kyle Larsen started with 3 rounds of diamonds ruffing low, and had to be hating it when this was overruffed with the 6. But this was from K6 and all was well for a push.
Hey Jon,
Thanks for your thorough analysis.
Again 3=4=2=4 I envisioned the following line:
Ruff opening lead, SA (LHO shows out), DAK pitching club, CAK, heart ruff, club ruff, heart ruff, club ruff, heart ruff. In the 2 carding dummy has SQ9, RHO has Sk6, so we get to score 1 more.
Experience tells me when you say some line does not work, it does not work, so I am probably the one who is missing something :)
Regards,
Alex
No, of course you are right about that plan...you will then only be down against 3=4=5=1. So it seems we are trading off 3=4=5=1 vs. 1=4=3=5 with SK, exactly as you said. These are exactly equally likely to be dealt. Lefty seems more likely to have enough to bid when he is 0=5=3=5 than 2=5=5=1 no SK (and might have led club stiff) so I still think my line is right, but thanks for correcting the analysis.
Regarding your comment on Avoiding Danger: I asked the walkers, they all played a spade to the 9.
I then asked about running the jack. AFter thought, they agreed that the jack didn't lose anything. One of them said he was jealous he hadn't thought of it.
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